The Valor Blog.
Investment News and Views, Direct from Our Team.

Brewing under the surface

A very well written article here outlining the political risks to China’s future.

Whilst I agree that there is a risk of a revolution, there would have to be a large scale disgust with the leadership in China, which at present doesn’t seem likely.

From my many trips to China, I have formed the opinion that the locals are quite patriotic even in the face of mass scale corruption, controlled existence and very limited political voice. I would suspect that it would take more than a few Bo Xilai scandals to move the people to unrest.

The Chinese governments prime objective is to keep their power. This will mean keeping low unemployment regardless of a slowing economy, tight censorship and continued propaganda. The former ministers of railway and current ministers of local provinces are multi billionaires. They will stop at nothing to keep their power, they will even murder to keep their positions. Whilst the Russian economy crashed in the late 90’s the power still remains in the corrupt elite. I would not bet against the Chinese Communist party keeping their power.