The Valor Blog.
Investment News and Views, Direct from Our Team.

Coffins Corner

China is in “coffins corner”.

Coffins Corner is a place you don’t want to be when flying an aircraft. It is caused by flying much higher than your optimum altitude. If you fly any faster, you get an over speed condition often with high speed buffet, and if you fly any slower you stall.

China has been flying much higher than their optimum altitude quite a few years now.

If China stimulates, they could cause an overspeed and will likely crash the economy in a few years. If they slow down, they could cause instability due to deflation as explained by John Hempton in his brilliant Kleptocracy blog.

At Valor, we are not expecting China to stimulate in a similar manner to their 4 Trillion Yuan previous injection, but we are keeping a very close watch on this.

I would suspect that Twiggy Forrest is awake at nights praying for his $100 a tonne iron ore price and a significant stimulus very soon. I would think it is a low probability that Twiggy gets his wish.