The Valor Blog.
Investment News and Views, Direct from Our Team.

The GDP dartboard in China..

With the raft of downgrades coming after the bad news out on the weekend in China, the geniuses of our top banking economists are changing their tune again. I always love a 12 month forecast that changes every 3 months.

These are the same economists who only a year ago said that there would not be any landing at all in China, soft of hard and China would continue to grow at high single digit rates for years. The RBA is still in denial suggesting that China will continue to build empty buildings until the 2030’s.

My prediction is that China will massage any GDP figure no matter how bad the economy is to ensure it makes the 7.5% GDP growth that the government forecast.

Electricity figures could fall, exports could continue to slow, consumption could slow further and the GDP will still come out at 7.5%…