The Valor Blog.
Investment News and Views, Direct from Our Team.

Vaccine Questions and observations

  • The market is expensive, but that is mainly in the overpriced stocks. The beaten up cyclicals are not expensive.
  • Could the economic conditions remain weak? Quite possibly. More QE and higher markets?
  • Getting out of this malaise will take more than the vaccine. It needs economic stimulus to get the economy going. Is Biden going to be able to get the economy going again? Will his stimulus be held up in the senate?
  • What will central banks do?
  • Central banks have promised low rates for a few years. Will this promise remain? If the economy comes roaring back, will they raise rates sooner? Will they do less QE?
  • What happens to gold?
  • What happens to property?
  • What happens to markets?
  • The Covid winners have been vaccine losers in the last 24 hours, will this continue?
  • Will value outperform growth for the foreseeable future?
  • If the market sniffs higher rates over the coming years, will it rerate? Can the central banks raise rates in such a weak economy? When? Most are positioned for rates not rising for many years, is this correct or incorrect?
  • Will people still be scared to fly?
  • What will be the recovery path for aviation?
  • How quickly will airlines get flying again? There are tens of thousands of pilots who haven’t flown for 10 months and are out of recency. They can’t get back to recency quickly as there are not enough simulators in the world.
  • Business travel will likely take far longer to recover. How much longer? When?
  • There is considerable pent up demand for travel. How does this play out?
  • Will it take longer than expected to roll out vaccine?
  • Are there other vaccines coming? We probably need more vaccines. Is one not enough to vaccinate enough people for the economy to recover?
  • How will the vaccine be rolled out?
  • Who gets it first?
  • Which countries? Do other countries have to wait after the US (and possibly Germany as they funded it?) Does this give Germany and the US a head start on the rest of the world?
  • How will that affect society?